Arab-American swing votes are within the grasp of Kerry/Edwards

But many of these votes may be lost

Juan Cole has comments about an interesting election analysis posted today. Cole cites a "truly excellent" Guardian article by Gary Younge, "Under siege since 9/11, Arab voters shift to Kerry". Younge writes:

By luck rather than design Arab-Americans are a sizeable force in many swing states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. In a third of the states needed to win the electoral college, Arab-Americans make up more than the gaps between the two parties.

What is more they are up for grabs. In 2000 they backed George Bush. This year they are leaning half-heartedly towards his Democratic challenger, John Kerry. In a close race which will be decided in just a few places, Arab-Americans are a rare and precious phenomenon: a swing constituency in several swing states.

Post-911 targeting of the community by the Bush Administration has driven it away from the Republicans. But Kerry/Edwards is locked into the Israel lobby, a point made clear by John Edwards during the veep debate:

GWEN IFILL: Senator Edwards, as we wrap up the foreign policy part of this, I do want to talk to you about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Today, a senior member of Islamic Jihad was killed in Gaza. There have been suicide bombings, targeted assassinations, mortar attacks, all of this continuing at a time when the United States seems absent in the peace-making process.

What would your administration do?

First of all, do you agree that the United States is absent? Maybe you don't.

But what would your administration do to try to resolve that conflict?

JOHN EDWARDS: Well, first of all, I do agree that we've been largely absent, not entirely absent, but largely absent from the peace-making process over the last four years.

And let me just say a couple of preliminary things and then talk about where we are now.

First, the Israeli people not only have the right to defend themselves, they should defend themselves. They have an obligation to defend themselves.

I mean, if I can, just for a moment, tell you a personal story. I was in Jerusalem a couple of years ago, actually three years ago, in August of 2001, staying at the King David Hotel.

We left in the morning, headed to the airport to leave, and later in the day I found out that that same day, not far from where we were staying, the Sbarro Pizzeria was hit by a suicide bomber in Jerusalem. Fifteen people were killed. Six children were killed.

What are the Israeli people supposed to do? How can they continue to watch Israeli children killed by suicide bombers, killed by terrorists?

They have not only the right to the obligation to defend themselves.

Now, we know that the prime minister has made a decision, an historic decision, to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza. It's important for America to participate in helping with that process.

Now, if Gaza's being used as a platform for attacking the Israeli people, that has to be stopped. And Israel has a right to defend itself. They don't have a partner for peace right now. They certainly don't have a partner in Arafat, and they need a legitimate partner for peace.

And I might add, it is very important for America to crack down on the Saudis who have not had a public prosecution for financing terrorism since 9/11.

And it's important for America to confront the situation in Iran, because Iran is an enormous threat to Israel and to the Israeli people.

Arab-American voters hearing this one-sided, pro-Israel tough talk are in a quandary. Younge quotes one, "People are very anti-Bush but we need to motivate them to go out and vote for Kerry and Edwards and they don't make it easy."

Another said, "We don't expect them to be pro-Palestinian. But they won't even say 'We support a just peace in the Middle East'."

Note to Juan Cole: Thank you for Informed Comment, one of the most valuable websites on the entire internet, and thank you for the link back to Deep Blade Journal.