Iraq election results reinforce Bush win

Failure to achieve absolute majority will dilute Shiite power


American-run TV in Baghdad carries Electoral Commission announcement, note the Dow Jones index display (AFP photo)

Unified Shiite list...48%
Kurdish list............26%
Allawi's Iraqi list....14%

I must differ slightly with Juan Cole today. Cole writes that "Allawi's defeat (he will not be prime minister in the new government) is a huge defeat for the Bush administration, though it will not be reported that way in the corporate media."

Yes, Allawi is beaten, but it's not as huge a defeat for Bush, or perhaps even Allawi, as Cole suggests. In fact, Allawi, from the third-place position, will hold significant influence in the formation of a new government because the Shiites are 20% short of the 2/3 coalition that is required. Oh, these Americans are smarter than they look!

But please do read Juan Cole's analysis, which I think is quite insightful nonetheless. His comments about the sympathies towards Iran of many of the characters who possibly could rule are extremely interesting.

This Bloomberg story lays out perhaps a little more likely scenario, I think:

``The fact that the Shia List didn't sweep the board means that they'll have to work with others,'' said Rosemary Hollis, head of the Middle Eastern program at Chatham House, a foreign- policy consulting group in London that advises European governments, in a telephone interview.

Iraq's first free election in more than 50 years may confirm the position of Allawi, a U.S.-backed Shiite who describes himself as secular, as a compromise to unite religious and ethnic groups, according to analysts including Josh Mandel, head of the Middle East unit at London-based Control Risks Group. The assembly will approve a prime minister by early March.

Furthermore, US Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist may have let a little too much American delight out of the bag:

[Frist] said today the fact that the Shiite coalition won less than 50 percent was ``one remarkable piece of information.''

The result ``leaves open the possibility that minority coalitions can come together'' to form a government, Frist, the leader of the Senate's Republican majority, said on the Fox News Sunday program.

And then, this same Bloomberg item includes exactly what Naomi Klein suggests in the references from yesterday's post:

Allawi's strongest challengers for prime minister are Finance Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi and nuclear physicist Hussain Shahristani, both considered to be moderate members of the Shia List by analysts including Robert Blackwill, a former Iraq strategist in the Bush administration and head of global affairs at Washington-based Barbour Griffith & Rogers, a lobbying firm.

Mahdi Backed

``The interim finance minister is a strong contender for the post of prime minister,'' Said of the London School of Economics said in a telephone interview. ``He is perceived largely as a moderate secular figure that people could agree on.''
...
The United Iraqi Alliance will put forward four candidates for the job of prime minister, Ali Allawi said: Mahdi, the interim finance minister; Dawa Party leader Ibrahim al-Jaafari; Ahmed Chalabi, once the candidate favored by the U.S.; and Shahristani, the physicist.

Wow! Ahmed Chalabi in the running for prime minister! How'd he get onto the list that achieved the plurality? Did the fact that the lists were pretty much anonymous have anything to do with that? I don't know.

Anyway, the "Trojan horse" scenario about which Naomi Klein wrote seems to be well underway.