Headline: ``Permanent shortage of oil may loom''

This headline was over an AP release that graced page A6 of Tuesday's Bangor Daily News


Peak oil hits the mainstream: The wire-service story in the BDN included this AP graphic. Note that for the ``most probable'' scenario to take place, nearly half again as much oil will have to be pumping daily in 2026 than it is today. ``Least probable'' is doubling by 2047.

Either scenario seems ludicrous to me. The world petrol supply chain is severly stressed in maintaining the current rate of consumption, despite persistent high prices. And look at the fall-off to the right side of those peaks in the latter part of the 21st century! If any of these scenarios are even close to true, those years will be global hard times with no alternatives yet visible.

Beyond that, the article itself is quite good for the most part, giving the views of geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes the respect they deserve. Deffeyes fixes world peak oil production in late 2005 or early 2006, more ``probable'' than the peak points shown in the graphic above, I believe.

On the other hand, peak oil skeptic Michael Lynch is quoted saying peak oil is silly. Evidently this is because the market is to control oil supply, not petroleum physics. Deffeyes is then quoted countering that, ``The economists all think that if you show up at the cashier's cage with enough currency, God will put more oil in the ground.''

Jonathan at Past Peak pulls out more of the important points here. Be sure to read the commenter who shrewdly notices use of the word ``could'' in the lead.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg is reporting Thursday: ``Oil traded near a six-week high in New York after surging 5.1 percent yesterday on concern refiners may fail to meet demand for gasoline and heating oil this year.''