Global oil supply system works

For now

The oil news for late 2005 is that fears about shut in supply in the Gulf of Mexico causing widespread shortages this winter have abated. It seems that fuel inventories are stable or even rising a bit, prices have eased, and markets are even selling ``short'' -- betting on further crude price drop. Holders of oil supplies and stockpiles around the world seem to have been willing to send fuel-thirsty America enough shipments to slake its post-hurricane thirst.

This has turned out okay for the short term. But the long term view is darker. Here are two references to programs I have heard today where long-term energy future is discussed.

The first is an NPR interview with British Petroleum CEO Lord John Browne. Browne is somewhat sanguine about near to medium term oil supplies and prices -- he thinks the crude price will slip into the $40/barrel neighborhood and stabilize for the medium term. But the conversation about the long term delved into BP's exploration of alternatives to oil. Seemed like the urgency was muted, as Browne spoke in a fifty-year time frame. Reading between the lines, however, suggests that Browne may know more about the depletion situation than he was willing to offer. In fact, the words ``depletion'' and ``peak oil'' are unmentionable in this and other interviews like it.

What's between those lines is depletion and peak oil. Oilcast.com has a new program that gives an insiders view on depletion, that of a unnamed senior engineer from Mexican state oil company, Pemex. Oilcast merely reports the remarks and has insisted that even transcribing them is impermissible. A frank, realistic discussion about world oil pushes a very hot button evidently.

The engineer states flatly that ``the days of the Mexican super giants are over'' and that Pemex is ``in the middle of the Hubbert curve.'' This is not a sanguine view of world oil prospects, even in the medium term. Go to oilcast.com and get the audio, the reported remarks are worth the download.