SF Chronicle: Campaigns fail on energy

Via Howlings (thanks, Bob), I see that the San Francisco Chronicle has a one-, two-, three-part series on energy and America's future.

The first part of the Chronicle series is entitled "Campaigns fail to focus on energy", a point Deep Blade has made in one two separate postings. According to Robert Collier, series author, in part one:

Kerry promises "energy independence from the Middle East in 10 years," yet he has not detailed how he would bring about such a colossal shift in the way America gets its energy in such a short period of time.

Bush makes brief mentions of his energy plan, which seeks to increase domestic oil and natural gas production but has been blocked in Congress for two years because of bipartisan concerns about environmental damage.

Meanwhile, consensus is emerging among experts that the country's reliance on foreign oil -- a key driver of American foreign policy -- endangers national security. It also forces Washington to rely increasingly on undemocratic nations like Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, whose role in the war on terrorism remains controversial and which is facing increasing attacks from terrorist groups allied with al Qaeda. The United States is becoming more dependent on Persian Gulf oil, not less, and the trend is virtually guaranteed to continue no matter which candidate wins the White House.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan took note of these concerns earlier this month when he warned in a speech that high oil prices could severely damage America's "competitive edge" and even suggested that the effects could be as bad as those following the skyrocketing prices of the 1970s.

Yes, it's a tall promise Kerry is making without showing specific figures how efficiency, alternatives, or even domestic drilling can replace a 12 million barrel per day US foreign oil habit.

Kerry has stuck to a position calling for a 50% fuel efficiency increase by 2015. But Michigan, a key swing state, is particularly reactive on this issue. Hence Kerry makes little of it on the campaign trail. It's a little hard to promote policies the other side will portray as job crushers. Detroit finds the gas guzzlers (SUVs and giant pickups) to be their most critical profit center.

However, Kerry has on occasion during the campaign, attacked Bush for being insensitive to the pocketbook problem soaring energy prices cause for average Americans. He offered the most in this major energy speech October 11 in Santa Fe:

Right now, oil prices are at an all-time high, with no end in sight. In most parts of the country, a gallon of gas costs nearly $2 – up 30 percent since George Bush took office. In the last four years, the cost of heating the average home with heating oil has gone up 91 percent. And high energy costs have pushed up prices across the board – from the food you put on your table to the clothes your children wear.

A thirty percent increase in gas prices means a lot more profit for this President’s friends in the oil industry. But for most middle class Americans, the Bush gas tax is a tax increase they can’t afford. The funny thing is, George Bush is trying to scare you into thinking that I’m going to raise your taxes. But to borrow a saying, when it comes to George Bush’s record on gas prices, he can run but he can’t hide. Facts are stubborn things, Mr. President.

Also in this speech, Kerry does outline an ambitious 5-point plan to erase America's foreign oil dependence:

First, as President, I will speed up investment in technologies that save energy and create alternative fuels. Through a new Energy Security and Conservation Trust Fund, Americans will have a guaranteed commitment to reducing our dependence on oil. We only have three percent of the world’s oil reserves. There is no way for us to drill our way out of this crisis. We have to invent our way out of it. American creativity has to drive the process – and new American jobs, good jobs here at home, will be our reward.

Today, the funding for our energy security is sporadic, uncertain, and insufficient. We may not have the greatest oil reserves on Earth, but we do have great resources of intellect and invention to find new fuels and to conserve and optimize traditional ones. So the trust fund I propose will take existing royalties that corporations now pay for the right to drill on public lands and dedicate that money to Research and Development so that we can have cleaner and more abundant energy sources.

We know that the road to more energy independence depends on making our cars and trucks more energy efficient. One out of every seven barrels of oil in the world is consumed on America’s highways. That’s why my plan contains economic incentives to build the energy-efficient cars, trucks, SUVs, and buses of the future. And I am determined that by the year 2020, 20 percent of America’s energy will come from domestically produced alternative fuels like ethanol.

Second, my plan reduces energy bills for American consumers. Under the Bush Administration, many Americans will be spending $500 more this winter to heat their homes. My plan will rein in out-of-control gas prices for families, farmers and businesses by restoring American leadership abroad, simplifying gasoline rules, deploying our Strategic Petroleum Reserve when appropriate, ensuring fair competition in the energy marketplace and helping industry, schools and homes increase energy efficiency and cut their energy bills. To begin with, my administration will enact efficiency standards to cut the federal energy bill by 20% -- saving $2 billion a year. We will help states, municipalities, businesses, and consumers do the same.

Third, we will diversify sources of energy. For four years, this administration has sat by while our dependence on foreign oil has increased. My plan will focus on finding new sources of energy. We will make clean coal a real part of our energy future. We will ensure that by the year 2020, twenty percent of our electricity comes from renewable sources like wind and solar. We will seek new sources of oil in non-OPEC countries. We will increase the supply of natural gas by developing domestic natural gas sources that are already open for leasing and drilling. And we will enhance our ability to move natural gas from Alaska and Canada.

Fourth, our energy grid is vulnerable; it can and must be strengthened. The August 14, 2003 blackout resulted in the loss of electricity for more than 50 million people and cost our economy $6 billion. The footprint of the blackout on both sides of the US-Canadian border included great urban areas that are heavily industrialized and important financial centers. More than a year after the August 14th blackout, George Bush hasn’t taken any action to ensure that the lights don’t go out again. We will.

Fifth, we will create 500,000 new clean energy jobs in America by providing incentives to invest in clean energy technologies and encourage job creation. Here in New Mexico, in places like the new wind farm in Quay County, you’ve seen how investments in renewable energy protect the environment while they also produce new jobs.

Later in the speech, he likens his plan to a "Manhattan Project" to make "America independent of Mideast oil".

Kerry's plan a bromide?
Okay, John Kerry. I'll vote for you on this one. But doubts remain. Collier quotes analysts who say things like, "American consumers may not like high gas prices, but there's nothing in the short term that the White House can do...And for the long term, there is no chance in the current political climate of doing what is necessary by curbing demand, through a large gasoline tax, for example. Have any of the candidates talked about higher (fuel- efficiency) standards in specific numbers? Are Americans prepared to pay a 50- cent-per-gallon gas tax, as an incentive to drive less? No.", and, "There is no chance that the United States will stop buying Persian Gulf oil".

If the depletion picture painted by ASPO is correct, what these analysts say is most certainly true, and the world supply picture will be restricted so as to insure very high prices for the foreseeable future. It seems to me that a Kerry presidency would be far, far better in emphasizing what needs to be done to deal with this ugly image. The politics will be very bad. But this is pain the American people, with their extreme energy habits, inevitably will have to face.

Part two of the Chronicle series considers the natural gas picture, also not pretty, and the domestic environmental strains gas drilling is causing in certain parts of the mountain west. Part three has much additional analysis of the automobile fuel efficiency issue.